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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."